VECTOR RIDGE · QUANTITATIVE MACRO

ATLAS

The macro engine that reads the regime, scores the dislocations, and forecasts every print.

ATLAS is a daily-refresh quantitative macro model that classifies the current growth × inflation regime in real time, scores cross-asset signals on a 5-year rolling z-score basis, and forecasts every Tier-1 economic print with an explicit 80% confidence interval. Six sub-models. One regime call.

0%
NBER deep recall
0
backtest anchors
0
cross-asset signals
0
print nowcasts
0h
refresh cadence
The problem

Reading macro is a full-time job.

Most traders skip it because the inputs are everywhere — Fed minutes, GDP revisions, ISM sub-indices, breakeven curves, FX flows, credit spreads — and the synthesis takes hours every day. So they react to headlines instead of positioning ahead of regime shifts. ATLAS fixes that.

Without a macro framework, you trade on news. You buy the headline, sell the next headline, and wonder why your P&L is just noise.

With one, you trade on regime. You know when stagflation is locking in, when liquidity is pivoting, when the curve is signalling recession. The same chart looks different through the regime lens.

The hard part isn't the framework — it's keeping it updated daily across 30+ inputs and 12 cross-asset signals. ATLAS is the thing that does that for you.

WHAT TRADERS TRY TO DO BY HAND
1
Track 4 growth + 4 inflation series from FRED + classify the regime
2
Run a recession probit on the yield curve every week
3
Z-score 12 cross-asset signals on a 5-year rolling basis
4
Forecast NFP, CPI, Claims, Retail, PPI against 24 months of residuals
5
Find historical analogs from 1990 → present and score their forward outcomes
6
Synthesize all of it into a single tradeable thesis daily
01 · What ATLAS reads

Growth × inflation, every day.

The economy is always in one of four states. Knowing which one is half the trade. ATLAS classifies the current state, projects forward 3 and 6 months via Markov chain, and finds the closest historical analogs. Each regime has a known asset-class playbook.

Q3 STAGFLATION Q2 REFLATION Q4 DEFLATION Q1 GOLDILOCKS growth → inflation → CURRENT
Q1
Goldilocks · growth up, inflation down
Risk-on regime. Equities lead, duration neutral, dollar mixed. The friendliest backdrop for long-only allocations.
Q2
Reflation · growth up, inflation up
Pro-cyclical. Commodities, EM, financials lead; long-duration suffers; dollar weakens. Pro-risk.
Q3
Stagflation · growth down, inflation up
The hardest regime. Long gold, long volatility, long duration; underweight cyclicals + EM ex-China.
Q4
Deflation · growth down, inflation down
Recession regime. Long Treasuries, long dollar, long quality; short cyclicals + commodities.
02 · The engine

Six sub-models triangulate the call.

ATLAS isn't one forecast. It's six independent models that score the macro state from different angles — quad classification, recession probability, liquidity flow, curve dynamics, cross-asset z-scores, and rule-based print nowcasts. Each refreshes daily. The panel composes them.

01 · QUAD CLASSIFIER
Quad Classifier
Level + Δ regime nowcast
Weighted composite of 4 growth series and 4 inflation series from FRED, z-scored vs a 5-year rolling window. Outputs probability across Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 plus Markov-chain forward projections at 3m and 6m.
data FRED dailyrefresh lazy 6h
02 · RECESSION COMPOSITE
Recession Probability
EM + Hamilton smoothed probit
Two academic recession models combined: Estrella-Mishkin (1996) probit on the 10y-3m spread, and Chauvet-Piger (2008) Hamilton SMM on coincident indicators. Output: forward 12-month recession probability with 100% NBER recall in backtest.
recall 28/28 NBERhorizon 12 months
03 · LIQUIDITY PULSE
Liquidity Pulse
Net liquidity Δ tracker
Tracks net liquidity (WALCL − TGA − RRP) and 90-day flow direction. Liquidity expansion is a leading indicator for risk-on regimes; drains compress multiples 30-60 days ahead. Flagged when Δ crosses ±$200B.
window 90 dayslead 30-60d
04 · CURVE TRACKER
Curve Tracker
10y-2y inversion path
Monitors the 10y-2y spread in real time, flags inversions, tracks days inverted. Every recession was preceded by an inversion; the un-inversion phase (4-12 months out) is the danger window. ATLAS knows where in the cycle we are.
precedents 1947, 1973-74avg lead ~9 months
05 · ANOMALY ENGINE
Anomaly Watch
12 cross-asset z-scores
Twelve cross-asset signals z-scored vs 5-year rolling history: WTI, DXY, copper/oil, breakeven inflation, real yields, BTC/M2, IG/HY spreads, Fed funds vs r*, VIX, 5y/5y forward, 2s10s, gold/oil. Ranked by |σ|. >2σ = HIGH severity.
signals 12tier |σ|>2 HIGH
06 · PRINT NOWCASTS
Print Nowcasts
Rule-based forecasts · 80% CI
Five Tier-1 economic prints forecast every release: NFP, CPI, Initial Claims, Retail Sales, PPI. Each uses real-time leading indicators (ADP, Mastercard SpendingPulse, etc.) with rule-based composition. Output includes 80% CI from 24-month residual std.
prints 5CI 80% bound
03 · See it on the panel

What you'll see on the terminal.

ATLAS surfaces 9 distinct outputs in the terminal. Below is a static snapshot of two — the Regime Banner and Anomaly Watch. Inside the live terminal, every value updates from FRED + the worker every 6 hours.

vector-ridge.com / terminal · ATLAS
LIVE · refreshed 2m ago
CURRENT REGIME · 12-WEEK PROJECTION
Q3 · Stagflation
40%
Decelerating real growth, sticky core inflation — but the curve un-inverted in late Sep '25, now ~7.4 months into the post-inversion phase. 1947 and 1973–74 precedents: recession averaged ~9 months after un-inversion. Bias long duration, long gold, long volatility; underweight cyclicals + EM ex-China.
VOL REGIME
Elevated
LIQUIDITY 90D
+$38B q/q
CURVE INVERT
+0.74 7.4m
RECESSION 12M
9.1%
// ANOMALY WATCH · CROSS-ASSET DISLOCATIONS · |Σ|
2 high 4 med
▲+2.79σ
HIGH
WTI Crude Oil 99.89$/bbl vs 73.90$/bbl baseline
Oil ELEVATED — inflation pass-through risk + geopolitical premium
▲+2.25σ
HIGH
5Y Breakeven Inflation 2.67% vs 2.33%
Inflation expectations RISING — market pricing reflation
▼−1.95σ
MED
Fed Funds vs Neutral (r*) 1.29% vs 2.52%
Real policy rate ACCOMMODATIVE — risk-on
▲+1.80σ
MED
Copper / Oil Ratio 187.11x vs 130.55x
COPPER outperforming OIL — global growth signal
04 · Track record

Backtest is open. Math is open.

Every number on the ATLAS panel is computed daily from FRED + auditable backtests. Below are the validation stats from the recession composite alone — the simplest sub-model to verify against the historical NBER record.

100%
NBER deep-recession recall
28/28 historical recession months classified Q3 or Q4 (1990 → 2026).
436
Backtest depth
Monthly anchors classified, 1990 → present. Each anchor has full quad probability.
97.4%
All-recession Q3/Q4 hit rate
38/39 NBER recession months including transition tails (out-of-sample).
6h
Refresh cadence
Lazy-stale pattern — auto-recompute on first request after 6h staleness.
Methodology citations: Estrella & Mishkin (1996) "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions" FRBNY 2(7); Chauvet & Piger (2008) "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods" JBES 26(1); Hamilton (1989) Markov-switching framework Econometrica 57(2). Input data: FRED (St. Louis Fed) — WALCL, TGA, RRP, DGS10, DGS2, T10Y3M, NFP, CPI, ICSA, RSAFS, PPIFIS + 24 supporting series.
05 · How traders use it

Three routines, three outcomes.

ATLAS isn't a "set and forget" model. It's designed to be read on a cadence: a 60-second morning glance, a 5-minute pre-print check, and a deeper weekly regime review. Pick the cadence that matches how you trade.

Daily · Morning

The 60-second glance

I read the Desk Note subject line and the top 3 anomalies before market open. That's it. The full panel is for Sundays.
1
Read the Desk Note subject line
2
Check Regime Banner confidence
3
Skim Anomaly Watch top 3
4
Note the next print nowcast delta
Pre-Print · 24h before

The asymmetric setup

I look at ATLAS forecast vs consensus 24 hours before NFP. If the delta is wide, I size into the asymmetry.
1
Open the relevant prediction card
2
Compare to the analyst distribution
3
Read the market reaction matrix
4
Set an invalidator — sub-index threshold
Weekly · Sunday

The regime review

Every Sunday I check whether the 3M and 6M distributions are diverging. That's where the position changes happen.
1
Look at Last 8 Quarters ribbon
2
Compare 3M vs 6M distribution
3
Read the closest analog outcome
4
Adjust your allocation tilt
06 · How to access

ATLAS comes in every plan.

ATLAS is included with every Vector Ridge subscription. The most popular path is the All Models bundle — full ATLAS + signals across all 6 markets + the Grade A-E conviction system + the free 240-page book.

FEATURED · 7-DAY FREE TRIAL

All Models

$50 /month
  • Full ATLAS terminal (regime, anomalies, nowcasts, allocation)
  • Signals across all 6 markets (Forex, Futures, Indices, Equities, Crypto, Polymarket)
  • Grade A-E conviction system on every signal
  • Free 240-page book (The Complete Trading & Investing Strategy)
  • Cancel anytime · no contracts
Start 7-day free trial →
OR · INDIVIDUAL MARKET

Single market access

$20 /month

Pick one market (Forex, Futures, Indices, Equities, Crypto, or Polymarket). Includes ATLAS terminal access for full macro context.

See all products →
07 · The honest comparison

How ATLAS stacks up.

You have options for macro analysis. ATLAS is the only one designed for retail traders that's quantitative, daily-refresh, multi-asset, and under $100/month. Here's the honest comparison.

ATLAS · $50/mo Bloomberg Terminal · $24k/yr Macro newsletters · $50–500/mo Free / DIY
Quantitative regime model 4-quad classifier · Markov forward Build it yourself ✕Narrative only If you build it
Recession composite EM probit + Hamilton SMM · 100% NBER recall Via add-on data ✕ ✕
Cross-asset anomaly z-scoring 12 signals · 5y rolling · ranked by |σ| ✓DIY via WS / EQS screens ✕ ✕
Tier-1 print nowcasts 5 prints · 80% CI · auto-refresh Via ECO <GO> manual Some publish weekly ✕
Refresh cadence Lazy 6h auto-refresh ✓Real-time Daily / weekly digests Whenever you check
Methodology citations Public · academic + FRED Closed Sometimes ✓Read the papers
Top-down allocation tilt σ deviations · 4-12w horizon ✕ Editorial only ✕
Free trial 7-day free · no credit card ✕ Sometimes 7d ✓
07 · Common questions

FAQ

Nine panels in the terminal. The headlines: regime probability across Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 with confidence + entropy, a quad plane chart with 5 historical analogs overlaid, Markov forward distributions at 3m/6m, top 5 most-likely paths ranked by joint probability, 12 cross-asset anomalies z-scored and ranked, a desk note editorial wrapper, 5 Tier-1 print nowcasts with 80% CI and reaction matrix, plus a top-down allocation tilt with σ deviations.

Every value is auditable, refreshed daily, and cited from FRED + the published methodology.

The recession composite achieves 100% NBER deep-recession recall (28/28) and 97.4% all-recession Q3/Q4 hit rate in backtest from 1990 to present. That's the simplest sub-model to verify because the NBER's recession dates are public.

The other sub-models (quad classifier, anomalies, nowcasts) are harder to validate against a single ground truth, but the methodology is academic and the inputs are open. Print nowcasts publish an explicit 80% confidence interval, so 1-in-5 prints lands outside the band by design.

The model is not infallible. When entropy is above 1.8 bits, ATLAS is explicitly telling you "low conviction — fade single-regime bets." That's a feature.

No. The Desk Note is written in plain English and the regime names (Goldilocks / Reflation / Stagflation / Deflation) are intuitive. Each anomaly row carries a translated "→ trade" line that even a long-only investor can act on (e.g. "long XLE" = buy the energy ETF).

If you're newer, the recommended path is: read the Desk Note daily, watch the Regime Banner shift over weeks, and let the Allocation Tilt guide your portfolio adjustments. Skip the technical layers (entropy, Markov projections, Sharpe) until you want them.

ATLAS is the macro engine. It tells you what regime you're in, where you're going, and which cross-asset signals are dislocated.

The signals (the four-model platform output across the 6 markets — Swing Trade, Multi Hour, Day Trade, Investing) are individual trade calls — entry, direction, exit, conviction grade A-E. They're calibrated by the macro framework that ATLAS produces.

You can use the signals without reading ATLAS — they stand on their own. But traders who pair the two get the macro context that explains why a Grade A SPX short is being called this week, or why a long-gold position has the highest conviction across the book.

Yes — the 7-day free trial on the All Models bundle gives you full access to the live ATLAS terminal with no commitment. No credit card charge until day 8. Cancel anytime during the trial and you're not billed.

Beyond that, the methodology is fully documented on this page and in the in-terminal help drawer. Every input series, every academic citation, every backtest stat is open.

ATLAS uses a lazy-stale-refresh pattern with a 6-hour TTL. The first request after staleness triggers a background recompute (~2 seconds) and serves the cached value instantly while the fresh compute runs. Subsequent requests get the new value.

Tier-1 economic prints (NFP, CPI, etc.) update the underlying FRED series within minutes of release, so the panel reflects new data within a single refresh cycle.

Two safety nets: (1) the 7-day free trial means you get full access before any charge; (2) on your first paid month. No contracts, no commitments, cancel anytime.

If you're on the fence, the free 240-page book covers the same macro framework principles — read that first, then decide.

VECTOR RIDGE · ATLAS

See what the model says today.

7-day free trial. No credit card charge until day 8. Full ATLAS terminal + signals across all 6 markets + free 240-page book.