The Macro Backbone
Inflation isn't "transitory" — it's the new normal. Tariff costs embedded, goods prices elevated, shelter catching up aggressively. Fed will ease cautiously (maybe 50–75 bps total), but real yields stay supportive of the dollar.
DXY elevated — 115–120 feels like the base case. U.S. growth holds 2–3% on AI investment and reindustrialization, while Europe and China lag. Exceptionalism trades live on.
Hard Assets: The Gift That Keeps Giving
Metals have been the trade of the decade, and 2026 looks like more of the same — only bigger:
- Gold to $4,000+ — central bank buying insatiable, supply constraints tightening
- Silver catching up violently on the ratio
- Platinum/palladium playing industrial catch-up
- Uranium powering the AI data-center boom
Quality Growth: AI Leaders Untouchable
NVIDIA, Alphabet, the hyperscalers — shrugged off every macro scare in 2025 and kept hitting new highs. Capex guides going up, inference demand exploding, moats widening.
These names have pricing power, pristine balance sheets, and secular demand that laughs at higher rates or trade friction. They're the only growth pocket worth owning in this regime.
Bottom Line: No Major Changes
- Maximum overweight precious/industrial metals
- Core conviction in AI infrastructure leaders
- Selective long-dollar forex exposure
- Short MSTR reiterated — zero direct crypto
Volatility will spike — but the winners remain the same. Stay disciplined, buy quality on weakness, and let the structural trends compound. Here's to a prosperous 2026.