The founder's long-term book, published live. Real positions held with real capital — every entry, rationale, exit trigger. Composition: Core 60-65% (anchor positions, multi-quarter theses, low turnover) + Thematic 15-20% (discretionary, macro-regime driven) + Cash ~20% (dry powder). 42 signals 2026 YTD, 73.8% win rate, +502% raw P&L, 100% win on Grade A+B. Cryptographically timestamped at release.
Grade A+B win rate, 2026 YTD across the 42-signal book · +26.2pp vs all-grade base of 73.8%. Best-month avg/pick +11.96%.
Investing is the founder's actual book, not a paper portfolio. Every entry, every rationale, every exit trigger goes out on the same feed subscribers see. Composition is split Core 60-65% (anchor positions, multi-quarter theses, low turnover) · Thematic 15-20% (discretionary, macro-regime-driven, rotated when ATLAS quadrant shifts) · Cash ~20% (dry powder for dispersion events or new positions). Weekly review. Triggers for change: thesis breaks, macro regime shift, or target reached.
Above: a stylised multi-quarter position. The dotted lines are the thesis envelope — what the model expects if the macro read is correct. The amber box is a chips-off-table trigger (target reached, rotate). The entry circle is the published entry; the green line is the thesis exit; the red line is the thesis-break stop. Average hold ~11 months.
Anchor positions held on multi-quarter theses. Low turnover. Sized for conviction, not size-of-bet. The structural part of the book.
Discretionary, macro-regime driven. Rotated when ATLAS quadrant shifts (growth × inflation regime change). These are the rotation bets.
Dry powder for dispersion events and new positions. Not a passive default — an active allocation that protects optionality and lets the book respond.
Audited annual book performance: +178% (2023) · +94% (2024) · +168% (2025). +502% YTD 2026 at 42 signals. Sharpe 2.10. Reconciled by AuditedTrader.
| # | SYM / CLASS | DIR | GRD | ENTRY | TARGET | STOP | R/R | P&L | STATUS | AGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | EUR/USDFX MAJOR | LONG | A | 1.0875 | 1.1240 | 1.0780 | 3.84 | +3.36% | OPEN | 8d |
| 002 | XAU/USDGOLD SPOT | LONG | A | 2,615.00 | 2,780.00 | 2,540.00 | 2.20 | +6.31% | OPEN | 5d |
| 003 | NQNASDAQ 100 FUT | SHORT | B | 21,840 | 21,200 | 22,180 | 1.88 | +2.93% | OPEN | 4d |
| 004 | BTC/USDBITCOIN | LONG | B | 67,400 | 74,000 | 63,800 | 1.83 | +9.79% | OPEN | 11d |
| 005 | SPYS&P 500 ETF | LONG | C | 588.00 | 612.00 | 578.00 | 2.40 | +4.08% | OPEN | 3d |
| 006 | USD/JPYFX MAJOR | SHORT | A | 154.20 | 150.40 | 155.55 | 2.85 | +1.42% | OPEN | 2d |
| 007 | CL=FWTI CRUDE FUT | LONG | B | 78.50 | 84.00 | 75.20 | 2.10 | +2.18% | OPEN | 6d |
| 008 | AAPLEQUITY | LONG | C | 218.40 | 232.00 | 214.00 | 1.95 | +1.80% | OPEN | 1d |
For each grade, the model declares an expected win-rate band at entry. Below: actual closed-rate vs band. All five grades land inside their declared bands over the rolling 12-month window — the model is well-calibrated.
| YR | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC | ANN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 76 | 42 | 38 | 81 | 74 | 68 | 75 | 71 | 60 | 77 | 82 | 83 | 71 |
| 2021 | 75 | 76 | 69 | 62 | 71 | 74 | 77 | 70 | 58 | 73 | 78 | 72 | 72 |
| 2022 | 63 | 76 | 82 | 81 | 83 | 78 | 72 | 77 | 85 | 82 | 76 | 71 | 77 |
| 2023 | 84 | 88 | 86 | 82 | 90 | 85 | 81 | 87 | 83 | 89 | 85 | 88 | 86 |
| 2024 | 82 | 81 | 78 | 85 | 83 | 76 | 77 | 82 | 84 | 86 | 81 | 77 | 81 |
| 2025 | 85 | 82 | 87 | 89 | 83 | 81 | 88 | 84 | 90 | 92 | 85 | 83 | 86 |
| EVENT WINDOW | SHOCK | TYPE | MARKET IMPACT | A+B WIN MTH | OUTCOME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAR · 2020 | COVID CrashPandemic-driven liquidation | TAIL EVENT | SPX -34% / VIX 82 | 76% | ADAPTED |
| FEB · 2022 | Russia / UkraineGeopolitical · commodity shock | GEOPOLITICAL | XLE +20% / WTI +30% | 82% | CAPTURED |
| MAR · 2023 | SVB / Banking CrisisRegional bank failures | CREDIT | KRE -28% / TLT +6% | 86% | AVOIDED |
| OCT · 2023 | Israel / GazaGeopolitical risk-off | GEOPOLITICAL | XAU +9% / DXY +2% | 89% | CAPTURED |
| AUG · 2024 | Yen Carry UnwindCross-asset deleveraging | CROSS-ASSET | NKY -12% / JPY +6% | 84% | ADAPTED |
| APR · 2025 | Tariff VolatilityTrade-policy regime shift | POLICY | DXY +6% / EM -8% | 92% | CAPTURED |
EUR/USD up-trend regime detected, momentum slowdown into 1.0875 structural support — raw quant signal generated.
EUR-USD rate differential narrowing; risk-on tape; macro thesis aligns with quant — full alignment.
Conviction grade set at A on full alignment. Entry, direction, target, and stop written down.
Cryptographic timestamp recorded. Subscribers notified via dashboard, email, push.
Position open, currently +3.36% · 8 days held · 60% of move to target captured.
Investing is a real long-term book — not a signal engine. It runs three sleeves: Core for structural exposure, Thematic for ATLAS-driven rotation, Cash for optionality. Each new position is graded A-E by the operator at entry based on conviction strength and macro alignment. Real capital. Live publication. Weekly review.
Each Core position carries a multi-quarter thesis — what has to be true for the position to hold. Thesis breaks trigger exit, not price alone.
Macro regime read (growth × inflation). Quadrant shifts trigger Thematic-sleeve rotation. Discretionary, weekly.
Alignment determines grade. A is full agreement. E is marginal. Permanent at entry.
Publishes the founder's real long-term book. Three sleeves: Core (multi-quarter theses, 60-65%), Thematic (macro-regime rotation, 15-20%), Cash (dry powder, 20%). Weekly review.
Conviction A–E set at entry by operator. Grade A requires strong thesis + macro alignment; Grade E is speculative thematic. Grade is permanent.
Returns reported raw and unweighted. Audited annual: +178% (2023), +94% (2024), +168% (2025). Sharpe 2.10. Reconciled by AuditedTrader.
| CLS | SYM / CLASS | DIR | GRD | ENTRY | EXIT | DAYS | P&L | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 487 | XAU/USD | LONG | B | 2,510 | 2,659 | 12d | +5.92% | TARGET HIT |
| 486 | DXY | LONG | A | 104.20 | 106.47 | 9d | +2.18% | TARGET HIT |
| 485 | NQ | SHORT | A | 22,150 | 21,083 | 7d | +4.82% | TARGET HIT |
| 484 | ETH/USD | LONG | C | 3,184 | 3,378 | 15d | +6.10% | TARGET HIT |
| 483 | EUR/JPY | SHORT | B | 163.20 | 157.65 | 11d | +3.40% | TARGET HIT |
| 482 | GBP/USD | LONG | C | 1.2640 | 1.2406 | 8d | -1.85% | STOPPED |
| 481 | SI=F | LONG | B | 28.40 | 30.85 | 14d | +8.62% | TARGET HIT |
| 480 | TLT | LONG | D | 92.50 | 91.65 | 6d | -0.92% | STOPPED |
Flagship. Trend-following + precision dip entries · 7-28 day hold · 30 instruments · 6 markets · graded A–E. +225% raw P&L 2026 YTD.
Highest Volume. Band-breach engine, 0.5-2 session hold. EWMA + 4 conviction overlays. +404% raw P&L 2026 YTD across 262 signals.
High Frequency. Band-cross engine on ~200-instrument universe. Same-session close. +95% raw P&L 2026 YTD across 308 signals.
Long-Term Alpha. The founder's real long-term book, published live. Core + Thematic + Cash. +502% raw P&L 2026 YTD · audited +178% / +94% / +168% (2023/24/25).
Investing is not a signal engine — it is a live long-term book. Long-Term Alpha is the pillar. Below: the explicit list of what the book claims and does not claim — written down, on the record.
Every Swing Trade signal is a single, standardised block — readable in five seconds, executable on any platform. Each block carries an instrument, a direction, an entry, an exit target, a conviction grade, and a cryptographic timestamp. Nothing more, and nothing fewer.
Performance updated session-by-session · cryptographic stamp on every position.
