HOW THE 4 MODELS TRADE POLYMARKET
Polymarket sits across the hold-time spectrum. Pick the model that matches how long you want to hold a trade.
DAY TRADE
0-60 minute hold. Rare on Polymarket; only fires when an event creates intraday repricing. Grade A bar ≥0.70% expected move. 308 signals across all markets · 67.5% win · +95% YTD.
See model →MULTI HOUR
0.5-2 session hold. Polymarket repricings around scheduled news and data releases using 4 conviction overlays. Grade A bar ≥4.50%. 262 signals · 71.4% win · +404% YTD.
See model →SWING TRADE
7-28 day hold. Multi-day Polymarket positions tied to political and macro outcomes. Grade A bar ≥6.00%. 78 signals · 74.4% win · +225% YTD · A+B 100% win.
See model →INVESTING
Long-term book — Core/Thematic/Cash 60-65/15-20/20. Polymarket positions appear as low-correlation tactical bets in the Thematic sleeve. 42 signals · 73.8% win · +502% YTD · Sharpe 2.10.
See model →SAMPLE POLYMARKET SIGNALS
Examples of how signals look when our models fire on Polymarket. Real signals deliver live to the dashboard with entry, target, stop and conviction grade.
Fed cut by Sep 2026 · SWING TRADE
US recession 2026 · MULTI HOUR
BTC > $100K 2026 · INVESTING
A-E CONVICTION GRADING
Every signal in every model — Polymarket included — is graded A through E by expected move. Each model has its own per-grade bar because hold time changes what counts as a meaningful move.
| Model | Grade A | Grade B | Grade C | Grade D | Grade E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day Trade | ≥0.70% | ≥0.50% | ≥0.30% | ≥0.15% | <0.15% |
| Multi Hour | ≥4.50% | ≥3.50% | ≥2.50% | ≥2.00% | <2.00% |
| Swing Trade | ≥6.00% | ≥5.00% | ≥4.50% | ≥4.00% | <4.00% |
GET POLYMARKET COVERAGE — PICK A TIER
There's no Polymarket-only subscription. You pick a model (and get its Polymarket signals) or you pick all 4 models (and get all Polymarket coverage across every hold-time band).
Pick any 1 of the 4 models + ATLAS macro overlay + full dashboard + push & email alerts. Polymarket signals included whenever that model fires on Polymarket.
Choose your modelAll 4 models + ATLAS — Day Trade, Multi Hour, Swing Trade, Investing. Every Polymarket signal across every hold-time band.
7-day trial included
Start 7-day trial1 seat REST API access + ATLAS deep-feed + full historical archive. For desks integrating signals into their own systems.
See institutionalPOLYMARKET FAQ
How does Vector Ridge cover Polymarket?
All 4 models can take Polymarket positions when prediction-market mispricings align with their setup criteria. Day Trade fires rarely (only on intraday event repricings). Multi Hour catches session-length moves around scheduled releases. Swing Trade runs multi-day positions on political and macro outcomes. Investing uses Polymarket as a low-correlation tactical sleeve.
Is there a Polymarket-only subscription?
No. Vector Ridge sells access to models, not markets. Pick one model for $20/month or All Models for $50/month with a 7-day trial. Polymarket positions are included whenever the models you subscribe to find prediction-market mispricings.
Which model is best for Polymarket traders?
For multi-day or multi-week political and macro bets, Swing Trade. For event-window positions, Multi Hour. For low-correlation tactical bets in a longer-term book, Investing. Day Trade only fires on Polymarket during high-impact intraday events.
What conviction grades do Polymarket signals receive?
A is highest conviction, E is speculative. In Swing Trade, A+B combined ran 100% win rate in 2026 YTD; in Multi Hour A+B ran 89%; in Day Trade A+B ran 82%. Polymarket positions are graded against the same per-model bars as every other instrument.